General Election 2019: just 40,000 tactical votes could deny Conservatives a majority

General Election 2019: just 40,000 tactical votes could deny Conservatives a majority
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A poll for an anti-Brexit campaign group suggests that 40,000 votes could swing Thursday’s election.

Just 40,704 voters out of 30 million expected to take part in Thursday’s election have the power to deliver a hung parliament, the research shows.

The data is based on an MRP poll, one of the most accurate seat-by-seat measurements of voting intention, conducted by Focaldata on behalf of Best for Britain, the group campaigning for a second referendum.

With mass tactical voting taken into account, the Conservatives would be denied 36 ultra-marginal seats they are either predicted to hold or gain.

Tough position for Johnson

Under this scenario, Mr Johnson would have 309 MPs, Labour 255, SNP 49, Liberal Democrats 14, Plaid three and the Greens one. The poll was not conducted in Northern Ireland.

The result would leave Mr Johnson hunting for support in a confidence and supply arrangement from the DUP – something that is not guaranteed given the Northern Irish party has expressed its concern over the Prime Minister’s redrafted Brexit deal.

The tactical voting poll shows that in each of those 36 marginal seats, 2,500 votes or fewer would swing the election.

In West Bromwich West, it would take just 183 anti-Brexit voters to switch to Labour to stop the Tories taking the seat. In total there are 73 seats where it would take just 5,000 votes or fewer to stop a Tory majority.

Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, said that Boris Johnson “faces the very real possibility of remainers in just 36 marginals seats using tactical voting to cannibalise what’s left of his expected majority.”

Read the full story by Jane Merrick here.